The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases has surpassed 8.9 million worldwide, with the death toll exceeding 468,000.

The rate of spread and timing of the peak of the coronavirus outbreak are still highly uncertain. As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates accordingly.

Cases of the deadly virus rose by a record for a single day on June 21, according to the World Health Organization, with flare-ups across the U.S. and new scares in Germany and Australia.

While China said the latest outbreak in Beijing is under control, other large emerging economies including Brazil, India, and Indonesia continue to see cases soar.

“The fight is nowhere close to being over,” said Tuuli McCully, the Singapore-based head of Asia Pacific economics at Scotiabank. “A second significant wave of infections in advanced economies is a huge risk for the global economy that is still in very early stages of recovery.”

The International Monetary Fund this week is set to unveil new forecasts for a world already facing its worst outlook since the Great Depression.

While the easing of lockdown restrictions in parts of Europe and the U.S. had led some economists to envisage a V-shaped recovery for the world, the re-acceleration in the virus argues against any swift revival.

“The flare-up tilts the risks from a V-shaped recovery to a U-shaped recovery,” said Deutsche Bank AG Chief Economist Torsten Slok.

European stocks fell early on Monday but later pared losses as investors bet that the economic recovery will keep going. Gold continued its march toward 2012 high.

An improvement in consumer confidence will be at the core of the recovery sequence if business investment and employment are to heal, according to Catherine Mann, Citigroup Inc. chief economist, and former chief economist for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The latest outbreak won’t help that outlook. “This is not a picture of recovery that is satisfactory in any way, shape, or form,” she told the Australian National University’s Crawford Leadership Forum Monday.

The global economy’s fragile recovery is facing a fresh hurdle as a surge in coronavirus cases threatens to keep businesses closed and consumers on edge. Cases of the deadly virus rose by a record for a single day. Absent a sustained rise in inflation, the Fed will hold the benchmark federal funds rate at 0%-0.25% until the labor market is largely healed.

With a commitment to increasing purchases of government-backed bonds by at least its current pace, we estimate the size of the Fed’s balance sheet to reach 40% of GDP by year-end–up 21 percentage points over the year, reflecting a policy rate cut equivalent to about 3 additional percentage points.