North Korean forces in Ukraine would put China in a tight spot

China’s Dilemma

The alleged involvement of North Korean troops in Russia’s war against Ukraine has raised concerns for China, as analysts warn it could weaken Beijing’s influence over Pyongyang and lead to increased anti-China sentiment globally.

North Korea’s Involvement

Kyiv and Seoul accuse North Korea of sending over 12,000 troops to support Russia, with 3,000 already in Russia. The United States has confirmed evidence supporting these claims, although the North Korean role in the war remains unclear.

Moscow’s Influence

The deployment signifies Moscow’s growing influence over Pyongyang, nurtured through months of strengthened security ties. A possible arms deal has been on the table since North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia last September, followed by a comprehensive strategic partnership signed in June.

Beijing’s Disapproval

China is “quite uneasy and potentially angry” with this Russian-North Korean alliance. Beijing fears that closer Pyongyang-Moscow cooperation could undermine its influence over North Korea.

Beijing’s Dilemma

China’s concerns are heightened by a treaty allowing Russian military intervention in North Korea, violating Beijing’s strategic interests. North Korea’s troop deployment could further damage relations between Beijing and Pyongyang.

International Reactions

The troop deployment has strengthened the rationale for tighter cooperation between South Korea, the US, and Japan, as North Korean short-range ballistic missiles pose a security threat to South Korea.

Widening Conflict

The deployment has connected Europe and Asia-Pacific into a single security terrain, with the potential for heightened security cooperation between NATO and Northeast Asia.