US Analyst Warns of Beijing’s Countermeasures to Trump’s “Hostile” Approach

US Analyst Warns of Beijing’s Countermeasures to Trump’s “Hostile” Approach

If Donald Trump adopts an adversarial stance toward China in a second presidency, Beijing possesses a range of tools to retaliate, according to Rick Waters, a former US official on China policy. He notes that China is eager to determine Trump’s China policy and assess whether they will confront a “transactional” or “angry” administration.

Escalating Tensions over Taiwan and South China Sea

Waters emphasizes the heightened risk of escalating tensions in Taiwan and the South China Sea during the transition period to a potential second Trump administration. He cites the possibility of Trump communicating with Taiwan’s leader, William Lai Ching-te, as a potential catalyst for instability, echoing the Chinese government’s opposition to such interactions.

China’s Expanding Retaliation Toolkit

Beijing has significantly expanded its retaliation toolkit in recent years, including enacting an Anti-Foreign sanctions law, implementing export controls on critical minerals, and imposing sanctions on US defense suppliers. Waters warns that China is prepared to further escalate these measures if they deem it necessary.

Beijing’s Scrutiny of Trump’s Potential Cabinet

China is closely monitoring potential cabinet appointments in a second Trump administration. Waters highlights the attention paid to Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official considered a possible National Security Advisor, who advocates for a strong military presence to deter China from attacking Taiwan. Mike Pompeo, a former Secretary of State who sanctioned China over the treatment of Uighurs, is also reportedly being considered for Defense Secretary.

Trump’s Taiwan Policy

During his campaign, Trump expressed an ambiguous approach toward Taiwan. While he suggested Beijing would not attack the island if elected, he also demanded that Taiwan pay for its defense and accused it of “stealing” the US chip industry. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has urged the US to handle the Taiwan issue prudently, considering it a highly sensitive matter.

Trump’s Progression on China Policy

Waters observes that Trump’s China policy in his first term evolved over time. Initially, he pursued a “transactional” approach, aiming to reduce the trade deficit through tariffs and a Phase 1 trade deal. However, in 2020, his approach shifted to a more confrontational stance, characterized by blaming China for COVID-19 and using inflammatory language.