Japan’s Upcoming Leadership Race: A Trio of Candidates, Each with Unique Risks

Japan’s Upcoming Leadership Race: A Trio of Candidates, Each with Unique Risks

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), seeking a fresh face to replace Fumio Kishida, has narrowed down the field of candidates to three: Sanae Takaichi, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Shigeru Ishiba. While each candidate promises a break from the past, they also carry potential risks.

Sanae Takaichi: Risks in Foreign Policy

Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, an advocate of Abenomics (easy-money policies), faces potential risks in foreign relations. Her hawkish stance may jeopardize improved ties with South Korea and further escalate tensions with China. Takaichi’s support for visiting the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which commemorates Japan’s war dead including convicted war criminals, could also lead to diplomatic incidents and rebukes from the international community.

Shinjiro Koizumi: Inexperience and Foreign Policy Concerns

Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi brings an element of youth and a dash of political stardom, yet his inexperience raises questions. His call for labor reforms has drawn criticism, while his foreign policy credentials appear thin. Given the potential return of anti-Japan sentiment in the White House, Koizumi’s lack of experience in international affairs could prove a significant vulnerability.

Shigeru Ishiba: Balancing Geopolitics and Economic Dilemmas

Veteran politician Shigeru Ishiba is well-versed in defense matters. However, his discussions of rebalancing Japan’s relationship with the US and forming an “Asian NATO” have raised concerns in Washington. Ishiba’s circumspect approach to the potential dangers of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and his comments about Japan’s non-binary foreign policy stance may also rankle Tokyo’s current allies. Additionally, Ishiba’s economic arguments appear contradictory, making his economic vision somewhat questionable.

The Lack of Economic Focus

Despite the public’s focus on social issues like allowing married couples to keep separate surnames, the next prime minister’s success will primarily hinge on economic performance. While each of the three candidates represents different strands of LDP economic thinking, their plans lack substance and clarity.