Trump’s Ukraine Gamble: Top Russian Banker Doubts Sanctions Relief as Tensions Persist

Moscow’s Banking Elite Speaks Out
Andrei Kostin, the influential CEO of Russia’s second-largest bank, VTB, has cast doubt on the likelihood of Western sanctions against Moscow being lifted anytime soon. Speaking candidly to Reuters, Kostin expressed skepticism about the incoming Trump administration’s ability to ease tensions with Russia, despite campaign promises to end the Ukrainian conflict.

Trump’s Promises on Ukraine Under Scrutiny
President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to resolve the ongoing Ukraine war quickly has stirred hope and skepticism in equal measure. Kostin, a former diplomat with deep ties in international politics, acknowledged Trump’s apparent commitment to tackling the conflict but questioned the feasibility of reaching a sustainable agreement.

“Trump’s intentions to resolve the Ukrainian war seem genuine,” said Kostin from his office in Moscow’s business district. “But whether a deal can be struck remains to be seen. Any settlement must endure, not just patch things over temporarily.”

Sanctions: A Lingering Shadow
Kostin warned that the powerful anti-Russian sentiment entrenched within the U.S. political establishment would likely delay any sanctions relief. Drawing a historical parallel, he referenced the Cold War-era Jackson-Vanik amendment, which was only repealed in 2012, decades after the fall of the Soviet Union.

“There’s a deep anti-Russian vector in Washington,” Kostin noted. “Even with Trump in office, sanctions are not going away overnight.”

A Changed Perspective on Ukraine
Kostin, a confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin, revealed a shift in his own views on the Ukraine conflict. Since February 2022, he has come to believe that Moscow’s actions were a necessary response to geopolitical pressures.

“Moscow didn’t have much of a choice,” he said, signaling a hardening of positions in Russia’s financial and political elite.

Frozen Reserves: A New Reality for Russia
Western sanctions have frozen approximately $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets. These funds, now earning interest to aid Ukraine’s defense, are unlikely to be returned, according to Kostin.

“In the West, they’re discussing using our reserves for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The bill they’ll draw up will likely dwarf the amount frozen,” he said.

Kostin vowed that Russia would avoid U.S. financial instruments moving forward, declaring, “Russia will never again keep its money in U.S. Treasuries. Anywhere, but not there.”

A Shift to the East and Global South
As Western financial avenues close, Russia is pivoting toward alternative partners. VTB’s upcoming investment forum will host participants from China, the Middle East, and India—underscoring the growing significance of non-Western alliances. Kostin highlighted these partnerships as evidence that Western sanctions have failed to isolate Russia.

“The dozens of countries willing to work with us demonstrate that sanctions are not as effective as hoped,” Kostin argued, citing the success of the recent BRICS summit held in Russia.

The Road Ahead
While Trump may try to mend U.S.-Russia relations, Kostin’s remarks underscore the challenges ahead. Sanctions remain a significant obstacle, and the deep geopolitical rift suggests that even genuine efforts at reconciliation may face resistance on both sides.

As the world watches Trump’s next move, Kostin’s insights provide a sobering reminder of the entrenched complexities shaping U.S.-Russia dynamics.